The memorandum of understanding that the Trump administration has signed with the remaining leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran has nothing to do with nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, or state-sponsored terrorism. It has everything to do with the fact that the United States failed in its military objective to control the Strait of Hormuz, giving Iran a chokehold on the global economy.
To put it as starkly as possible, even after all the damage and death President Donald Trump inflicted on the Iranian regime, the simple reality is that Iran is currently able to inflict more pain on us than we are willing to inflict on them. That is why the terms of the deal are so lopsided in favor of Iran. Trump is dealing from a position of weakness. The only question is how much bad Iranian behavior Trump will be willing to tolerate before he reestablishes force as a credible deterrent.
Recommended Stories
From the beginning, the Trump administration could not settle on a single rationale for the Iran war. At first, the president framed Operation Epic Fury as a defensive strike “to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” while the White House later insisted the objectives were limited and military: destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles, annihilate its navy, sever its support for terrorist proxies, and ensure Tehran never obtained a nuclear weapon.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed that line, saying the operation was about denying Iran nuclear weapons, missiles, and naval power. But Trump kept expanding the mission, telling Iranians, “When we are finished, take over your government.” He demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” said the U.S. might have to approve any new Iranian leader, and then brushed off questions about the end of the conflict by saying, “Forget about next.”
Next is here. And Trump has no plan.
Trump is a businessman, and businessmen take calculated risks. Riding high off the removal of former dictator Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela, Trump probably had an inflated view of what the U.S. military could accomplish. It is highly likely that his secretary of war oversold what the American military could accomplish. Trump rolled the dice, hoping the Iranian people would rise after the regime was decapitated. But they did not. Instead, they dug in and turned the conflict into an economic war by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
Thanks to our strong domestic energy sector, the U.S. was somewhat insulated from the economic pain Iran was causing at first. But as the conflict went global, energy supplies fell, the price of gas here at home went up, and Americans began to feel the economic pain the rest of the world had already been suffering for weeks.
“We run out of reserves in about four weeks,” Trump said at the G7 summit of world leaders this month, defending the deal he cut with Iran. “The alternative to this deal was a global recession. There are stupid people who want to see a global recession. They are just stupid people. The Strait of Hormuz would never have been opened,” Trump explained.
That is why Trump cut the deal. To avoid a global recession by opening the Strait of Hormuz. As long as Iran maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, it will be operating from a position of strength, and Trump will be operating from a position of weakness. Given the Iranians’ strong position, why should Iran agree to anything Trump wants? Let inspectors into nuclear facilities? Pound sand. Stop funding Hezbollah? Get lost. Don’t charge tolls on shipping through Hormuz? Forget about it. We’ll see.
EDITORIAL: DEMOCRATS ARE NOW THE PARTY OF SOCIALISM
At a White House press conference on June 18, Vice President JD Vance was asked what, if any, Iranian actions would trigger a military response from the Trump administration. He declined to identify any red lines. Instead, he said only that the administration would judge Iranian conduct as events unfolded.
Hypothetically, at some point, there is a limit to how much bad Iranian behavior the Trump administration would tolerate before it returned to force. The only real question is how long we have to wait before Iran reaches that limit. We’d guess that it will be a long time.
