It’s been just under five weeks since that mad mid-May Thursday when Wes Streeting resigned as Health Secretary, Angela Rayner said her tax affairs were sorted, and Josh Simons stepped down as Makerfield’s MP to make way for Andy Burnham.
We’ve spent enough time in political limbo. In the early hours of Friday morning, one of the key loose ends following the events of May 14 will be tied up when we learn the results of today’s by-election in that south Wigan constituency.
You don’t need me to tell you it’s pivotal. Political reporters have been saying little else since the campaign kicked off, and it would make for a rather boring read.
Polls opened in Makerfield at 7am (and in two Scottish constituencies, Broughty Ferry and Aberdeen South, which are also holding by-elections tomorrow for seats in Westminster).
Those polls will close at 10pm, and shortly afterwards vote-counting for Makerfield will begin at a Wigan venue called The Edge on the banks of the River Douglas.
(A Celine Dion tribute act called The Celine Experience performed there last Saturday, and it will soon host tributes to the Stone Roses, Oasis, AC/DC, Elvis, Bon Jovi, Michael Jackson and Abba. Not all on the same night.)
I hope you’ll be staying up with me for the results, which should arrive at around 3am or 4am. Your boss would understand on Friday, trust me.
Today I’m heading up to Wigan so I can be in the counting room to learn first-hand who has bagged victory and hear their speech.
But the individual who will be delivering that speech is, until that moment, unknown. This is where we dive into the realm of the hypothetical – I believe there are three likely scenarios in Makerfield. Here’s what they would mean.
Labour wins, with more votes than Reform and Restore combined: Great news for everyone in Labour, except perhaps Sir Keir Starmer. Andy Burnham will have shown he is the man to face down the national right-wing surge and his future in No 10 will likely be secure.
Labour wins, but with less votes than Reform and Restore combined: Still good news for Andy Burnham, though a little more ambiguous. Nigel Farage will face a loud wake-up call, telling him this threat to his party’s right may cost him further victories to come.
Not least the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election that will take place if Burnham clinches a seat in the House of Commons. Both Reform and the Green Party will pour a lot of energy into securing an upset there.