Winning the open Michigan seat effectively means Democrats are playing a form of political defense. Since it wouldn’t be a pickup, Democrats would need to flip four more seats to claim a majority in the Senate, which Republicans now control 53-47.

And Michigan is no longer a sure thing for Democrats. A messy Democratic Senate primary now gives Republicans a real chance of nabbing the seat in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

Michigan is among several pieces of a scrambled Senate map that isn’t playing out as expected in the early part of the 2026 election cycle.

Democrats still seem in a strong position to win an open North Carolina Senate seat, bringing the party to a potential 48 seats. But then the electoral road gets more difficult, even in a broader political environment that should favor Democrats.

Operating in a traditional “midterm effect” environment under a Republican presidential administration, Democrats are benefiting from historical trends that heavily favor the party out of power. Democrats hold a consistent, growing lead in generic congressional ballot polling. The RealClearPolling Average places the Democratic lead at 6.1 percentage points, while the Nate Silver Bulletin shows the generic ballot hitting D+7.

Moreover, Donald Trump has lost popularity nearly 17 months into his second, non-consecutive term. The administration’s ongoing military conflict with Iran has faced severe backlash. National polling reveals that more than half of Americans now view the decision to enter the war as a “mistake.” Related disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East have also closed major oil trading corridors, such as the Strait of Hormuz, driving national average gasoline prices up from less than $3 per gallon to $4.48 per gallon.

Inflation is a lingering problem for Trump more broadly. The consumer price index rose 4.2% in May, the steepest increase since 2023.

Nonetheless, Democrats are taking a big risk in a different Senate race that, like Michigan, starts with an “M” and abuts Canada — Maine. Democrats’ nomination of a far-left populist in the mold of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), oysterman and military veteran Graham Platner, threatens the party’s chances of beating a longtime GOP incumbent, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).

Platner, who won the Maine Democratic Senate nomination on June 9 after months as darling of the activist Left. Many supporters swoon over the policy platform offered by the baritoned-voice, bearded (and particularly mustachioed) progressive populist, 41. His platform includes demands for wealth redistribution, what Platner calls universal government-provided healthcare, free college, and ending U.S. involvement in foreign wars. Platner secured widespread backing from progressive figures like Sanders, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), and online groups aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America.

Whether Platner can withstand the coming campaign trail heat is an open question. Even in a state that’s largely backed Democratic presidential candidates since 1992 and where the party has full control of state government. Platner faces mounting national scrutiny over a series of controversies, including allegations of past abusive behavior, sexually explicit text messages, offensive online comments, and a chest tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol.

Now Platner is facing Collins, a wily competitor who has frustrated Democratic attempts to beat her over three decades. She’s deftly distanced herself from the Trump agenda when necessary, without unnecessarily alienating Republican Senate colleagues.

Yet blue shoots are emerging for Democrats in their quest for a Senate majority, less than five months before the elections. Democrats are growing more bullish on their chances in Ohio, a red-leaning state in recent years, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown is mounting a comeback attempt. Voters ousted Brown in his 2024 reelection bid after 18 years in the Senate, but he ran considerably ahead of Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. Brown in November faces appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), who replaced Vice President JD Vance in the Senate. The winner will hold the seat for two years before it comes up for election to a full, six-year term in 2028.

In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola will likely be the main Democratic candidate to emerge from the Aug. 18 primary. The Alaska electoral system features a unique “Top Four” primary, followed by ranked-choice voting in November. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) seems to be gearing up for a fall fight against Peltola. He first won the Senate seat in 2014 and has been a mostly loyal, if less-prominent, backer of Trump’s MAGA legislative agenda.

Lately, Sullivan has distanced himself from Trump at times. He recently voted with Democrats in an unsuccessful attempt to block Trump’s proposed “anti-weaponization” fund.

Then there’s the long-elusive Democratic target of Texas. A longtime GOP electoral monolith that, at this stage of the election cycle, at least looks like a viable pick-up opportunity. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) lost the Republican primary runoff to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a scandal-plagued figure, to put it mildly. Democrats are hopeful about their nominee, state Rep. James Talerico. He’s a one-time seminarian who is trying to straddle the yawning divide between the traditionally conservative Texas and the politically shifting areas in and around the big cities of Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and elsewhere.

An arguably even stronger opening has emerged in Iowa. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda is deeply unpopular across the Midwest, which depends on farm-related exports. The retirement of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) after the November elections is boosting Democrats’ hopes of grabbing the seat for the first time in a dozen years.

Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) will face Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in the fall. Trump’s trade policies have drawn broad bipartisan pushback from Democrats, and even some Iowa Republicans, over the heavy toll they have taken on the local agricultural economy and manufacturing sectors.

Will a Yooper star emerge?

Each of these races will be decided, to a significant degree, by which party’s candidates can capture more votes in outlying and rural areas where working-class residents once backed Democrats but have gone GOP in the Trump era. It’s playing out in places like Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, a predominantly conservative, right-leaning region that largely favors the Republican Party yet maintains a strong streak of independent and labor-friendly populism.

The Upper Peninsula doesn’t usually draw a ton of candidate attention in competitive statewide races. After all, the bulk of Michigan’s population is highly concentrated in the Detroit metropolitan area and the broader industrialized southern half of the Lower Peninsula. More than 50% of the state’s residents live in just three counties out of 83 — Wayne (encompassing Detroit) and the generally suburban Oakland and Macomb counties to the north and northeast, respectively.

Not surprisingly, that’s where candidates spend the bulk of their time campaigning, along with Lansing, the state capital and a college town — Michigan State University is actually in neighboring East Lansing, but the point stands. They also visit Grand Rapids and neighboring western Michigan communities.

That often leaves residents of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula largely off the campaign trail. Though it makes up roughly 29% of Michigan’s total landmass, the region is highly rural and accounts for just over 3% of the state’s population of more than 10 million people.

Not this year. Upper Peninsula communities have drawn campaign visits from the Democrats vying for their party’s Senate nomination in its Aug. 4 primary: Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County health director Abdul el Sayed.

Republican Senate candidate Rogers, too, has had a more-active-than-usual presence in Michigan’s far north. Rogers lost the 2024 Senate race to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) by an agonizingly close margin of 48.64% to 48.30%. Even a bit stronger Republican turnout in the Upper Peninsula could make a difference against the eventual Democratic nominee.

Yoopers, as many Upper Peninsula Michiganders call themselves, in the Democratic primary will, like their downstate counterparts, choose between different flavors of Team Blue. El Sayed is a virulent critic of Israel amid its post-Oct. 7 war of self-defense. On the domestic front, he advocates for policies like Medicare for All. He holds endorsements from Bernie Sanders and the United Auto Workers.

Stevens has been an Israel supporter during her nearly eight years in the House and is broadly considered an establishment center-left Democrat. McMorrow has pitched herself as an upstart who can draw from both sides of the Democratic coalition.

In the college town of Marquette, home to Northern Michigan University and the Upper Peninsula’s largest city, with about 22,000 people, signs for all three Democrats were abundant on a sunny late May morning. There were also several for Rogers, soon to be the Republican nominee, in his second bid at a return to politics after a House career that included chairing the chamber’s Intelligence Committee from 2011 to 2015.

November election results in the region, hours from any major city in the U.S. — or Canada for that matter — will be a strong indication of whether or not the open Michigan Senate seat stays in the Democratic column and whether the Senate continues to have a Republican majority or flips to Democrats amid an increasingly scrambled electoral map.

David Mark (@DavidMarkDC) is the managing editor of the Washington Examiner magazine.