President Donald Trump‘s memorandum of understanding with Iran leaves the big-ticket item, Iran’s nuclear program, unresolved. Everything else counts as noise until that concern is addressed. We need to know what will happen to Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and its nuclear infrastructure.
The leaked reports on this deal invite concern: a $300 billion reconstruction fund for the regime that the Gulf countries will pay into. However the United States describes it, this fund will be seen as a tax America’s allies must pay to keep Iran’s drones away. But giving tribute to Tehran without first agreeing on the future of its nuclear portfolio is unwise. It disincentivizes the Iranian regime to concede further, and it teaches Tehran that pressure pays.
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The American-Israeli military campaign has also shown the limits of airpower.
Further damaging the Iranian regime demanded either boots on the ground or American tolerance for an increased oil price shock. These were both heavy demands while public support for the war remained fragile. But Iran has its own problems: a broken economy and a brittle political order. The blockade choked its oil revenue, and the war shattered much of its military.
All of this underlines why the best way ahead is to hold the line on the nuclear file and let the economic pressure do its work. After 60 days, another 60 becomes the path of least resistance. The problem is Tehran doesn’t think Trump has the appetite to continue this showdown.
This is not to say the war has been a failure. By striking Iran in the first place, Washington signaled that anti-American activity now carries a tangible cost. But pressing the regime with one hand while feeding it a reconstruction fund with the other undermines American strength. After all, every dollar that reaches Tehran buys back the capabilities and confidence the campaign previously destroyed.
The future, in short, holds a lot of unknowns. Iran is likely to at least temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the knowledge that it can close the strait in the future as it wishes. But what will Trump do if Iran fails to make nuclear concessions? Will Iran sense, also, that it has Trump’s quiet blessing to attack Israel without expectation of Israeli riposte? Will Trump return to military action once the midterm elections are over?
Neither Trump nor Iran knows the answer. But whatever it is, that answer will be fraught with consequence.
