The memo’s vague commitments to finalize specifics about dealing with the rogue regime’s nuclear program over a 60-day span is meaningless, for now, but that provision holds the key to whether any ultimate agreement can be greeted as a relative success, or condemned as an indefensible failure.

The major priorities driving military intervention in Iran, both in ‘Midnight Hammer’ last summer, then again this year, were threefold: First, destroy the regime’s nuclear program; second, neutralize Iran’s missile threat; and third, end support for Iran’s destructive terror proxy network. All three of these goals are in the vital national interests of the United States.

But per the document, the latter two of these goals are now seemingly off the table in these negotiations. That’s a win for Iran, and it’s tough to spin for President Donald Trump, having previously assailed the Obama-era JCPOA for not addressing or eliminating such threats.

Iran’s terror tentacles pose a serious danger to American interests, American allies, and Americans. Those radical groups, from Hezbollah to Hamas to the Houthis, are awash in American blood. Leaving this festering problem unaddressed in a peace accord, along with the missiles, is a dealbreaker for many, and understandably so.

But the existential threat is the nuclear program, whereas the others could be managed and contained, albeit at a cost. If a final agreement coerces Iran into completely, verifiably, and permanently dismantling and abandoning its nuclear program, that would be a win.

But the nuclear resolution would have to be truly comprehensive, with the highly-enriched uranium — Trump calls it the “nuclear dust” — removed from the country or destroyed, plus all nuclear facilities taken apart. Unfettered snap inspections and vigilant surveillance would be essential to guard against future reconstitution.

If all of that is achieved, the deal would be good, on balance. It wouldn’t be great, having fallen short of what may have been accomplished if the administration had pressed its advantage with its boot on the regime’s neck, but it could be credibly defended as a net positive. And that eventuality still appears to be in the offing, at least in theory (emphasis on the theoretical — more on that later).

This objective should be the overwhelming and non-negotiable American priority. Trump has stated that the MOU is not a finished product, and asserted America’s right to resume bombing if the regime doesn’t comply with his expectations. But Trump downplaying the urgency of excavating and eradicating the nuclear dust, and especially signaling potential openness to the regime maintaining a nuclear program with low-level enrichment, is worrisome. If Iran’s nuclear ambitions are not thoroughly extinguished, it’s a bad deal.

One way to avoid a bad deal is to impose a good one. Another is to simply walk away from the table if the Iranians won’t accept a good one.

Some commentators have argued that the regime is in a better position today than it was before the bombs fell. This is blinkered lunacy.

Iran’s major nuclear facilities are reduced to rubble, many of its top nuclear scientists have been liquidated (along with a wide swath of top leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei), its missile stockpile has been massively degraded, and its capacity to produce new missiles has been decimated.

Its navy is sunk, though the “small boats” swarm can still wreak some havoc. 

Its ability to defend and command its own airspace has been reduced to virtually zero, and its command structures have been deeply penetrated by Israeli intelligence.

Its economy, already disastrous enough to inspire mass protests, is in complete shambles.  

The regime is much, much worse off than it was at the outset of Trump’s second term.

Iran hawks in our country, Israel, and elsewhere should not lose sight of any of this and maintain deep gratitude to the president for authorizing all of these actions, which were by far the strongest punishment any American president has ever inflicted upon the regime. All that tangible, game-changing progress does not get wiped out by a possible lackluster or bad deal.

But why concede a bad deal at all? Why breathe oxygen into any sort of regime comeback on the economy, on terrorist meddling, or on conventional and nuclear weapons programs? If a great, or even relatively good, agreement can’t be brokered, walk away. Declare military victory, based on the facts laid out above, perhaps hitting some of the hundreds of remaining aerial targets on the way out. Warn that even though American forces are disengaging and the bombing is wrapping up, our eyes remain fixed on Iran.

Any hint of rebuilding what has been destroyed will be met with withering punishment. The Israelis, who have flexed impressive intelligence insights within Iran’s borders, will be off the leash, with an American green light to “mow the grass” on re-emerging threats. They’re happy to be the regional enforcer. Inform the regime that America is handing Israel that baton. Then keep crushing sanctions in place while using American military might for the sole purpose of keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, ideally with the assistance of any number of highly interested parties.

This is easier said than done, of course, but it can be done.

Finally, on the subject of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s immediate cynical machinations and clumsy game-playing on that front should tell Trump everything he needs to know. Twice in recent weeks, the regime has ostensibly agreed to open the strait. Twice they’ve reneged, finding excuses to do so.

Their latest, transparent manipulation is to order or allow their terror proxy Hezbollah to attack Israel from Lebanon, necessitating an Israeli response. Iran has then pointed to the inevitable reprisal they deliberately precipitated as a reason to accuse Israel, and therefore the U.S., of breaching the interim pact.

Aside from this misbehavior being pathologically embedded in their destructive DNA, a side goal of this nonsense is to goad Trump into blaming the Israelis for not lying down and absorbing attacks against its people, in order to protect some shaky framework the U.S. government has signed onto.

None of this is particularly subtle or clever. The president and his team cannot be bamboozled by it. They should be enraged by it. In fact, the regime is giving them a tailor-made excuse to pull the ripcord and get out:

The very first bullet point of the MOU declares that the U.S. and Iran each assent to an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other.” This includes each parties’ “allies in the current war,” a phrase that cuts in both directions, and very much includes Hezbollah on Iran’s side. The Iranians likely thought this clause was a sneaky way of trapping and paralyzing Israel, but it’s their own ally and terror proxy that is continually violating the “termination of military operations” in Lebanon, an explicit violation.  

THE IRAN DEAL BREAKS VIRTUALLY EVERY ONE OF TRUMP’S PROMISES

That’s a clean “out” for the Trump administration. The regime utterly refuses to learn any lessons, even the hard way. Its leaders are incapable of improvement or honor. And a regime that won’t operate in good faith in fulfilling its singular and bare minimum current obligation (opening the strait) — even when it’s clearly in their interests to at least pretend to be on their best behavior, in order to get desperately-needed cash flowing — is not a regime that can ever be reasonably expected to surrender and dismantle a nuclear program it has coveted and pursued for decades.

Trump should be commended for giving peace a chance. But if and when Iran continues to reward those efforts with yet more insults, evasions, and provocations, the choice will be clear: Walk away, Mr. President.